The Irish prime minister is in trouble

Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister finds himself under unexpected attack for a series of avoidable blunders. In December, the poll ratings of the two ruling parties (Fine Gael and Labour) briefly soared. That reflected public recognition of the government’s success in quitting the programme, regaining lost sovereignty and restoring Ireland’s international reputation. The economy was showing tentative signs of recovery, leaving the coalition parties apparently well-placed to fight mid-term elections in May.

The government still forecasts modest GDP growth of 2.1% this year; unemployment in March dropped to 11.8%, below the euro-area average. Yet the coalition’s ratings have plummeted. A recent poll put Mr Kenny’s Fine Gael on 25%, fully 11 points below its share of the vote in the 2011 general election, while support for Labour, at 8%, has fallen by more than half.  Relations between Fine Gael and Labour ministers have become strained in recent months, with the Labour contingent publicly challenging Mr Kenny’s authority. Unsurprisingly, speculation has started over whether the coalition will be able to complete its five-year term.

The police controversy is bad news for Mr Kenny, even if it has not greatly boosted the main opposition party, Fianna Fail, which is only slowly recovering from its electoral meltdown in 2011. Fianna Fail remains haunted by its term in office during the boom-and-bust cycle that ended in the disaster of a euro-zone bail-out in 2010.

The elections may yet prove little more than a mid-term rebuff. It would not then be a surprise if Mr Kenny, who is probably more highly regarded abroad than he is at home, were tempted by recent talk of a senior post in Brussels when the big European jobs are parcelled out this summer.